Saturday, July 26, 2008

2. Geography

After Ideology, geography is the most important stage of a society's growth. It defines culture, tradition, language, profession and commerce. Similar to the question of ideology, the geography of Pakistan is also a point of much debate. Kashmir and Bangladesh complicate the situation further that was already debating whether our geography starts and ends with Indonesia and Morocco or with Nagaland and Afghanistan.

The lack of a clear definition of geographical boundary has rendered the questions of culture, language and commerce wide open leading to complex ethnic issues now deep rooted in our DNA. The serious mistrust between the handful of ethnicities is on the verge of tearing the country apart. The only thing keeping the country together is the corrupt leadership of all ethnicities. They know that they have to scratch each other's back to control the masses of each region. Divide and conquer. So our federation is bound by the ideology of corruption and the Supreme Court deposed justice Iftikhar seems to be challenging that. No leader or intellectual has so far put forth a plan to bring the warring Baluch and Pakhtoons back into the federation. Do we not consider that to be part of our geography? What is prohibiting us from reaching out to these factions? More importantly, what is the common message that will bring them back into the country? Do we have such a message? Wouldn't an ideology be a good tool to have at this point. Since nothing is bringing us together, even minor differences are forcing us apart.

The ethnic divide in Pakistan is at a point where no one seems to even have an idea how to bridge it. Like the group of poor people losing faith in Allah, we seem to have accepted this ethnic divide as a cornerstone of our society. A deeper look into this ethnic mistrust makes one realize that basically it is all economics that is dividing us further and creating this animosity amongst our own people. Muhajirs don't trust Punjabis and that has changed since the 80s when GM Syed led Sindhi separatist groups were the main rivals of Muhajirs. There seems to be some truce between the Sindhis and Muhajirs more like a realization at the people level that we are in this together. The combined hatred or suspicion of Punjabis is always there. The Muhajir Pakhtoon situation is also stirring up with frequent attempted and somewhat damaging conflicts between MQM and ANP. Baluchs don't seem to be interested in any other group and Pakhtoons are confused between the arbitrary boundary that the British used to divide NWFP and Afghanistan.

The problem of Ideology may be a little simpler to solve compared with the problem of geography. people need to realize that it doesn't matter what their ethnicity is. What matters is how much money and power they have. Poor Punjabis in Punjab are being oppressed by the rich Punjabis and are no different than the poor Sindhis in Sindh. It is not about ethnicity, it is about money and power. However, this type of message is nowhere to be found in print or electronic media.

Next come the analysis of Politics and the state of political affairs in Pakistan.

1. Ideology of Pakistan

This fundamental question is still debated as firecely as it was during 1945 to 1947. Is Pakistan a Muslim country or a country for Muslims? I am not going to try and answer this question but the fact that this question is unanswered has consequences. I am going to talk about the consequences.

There is a clear divide among the populous on the issue of ideology. The educated and well-to-do tend to have a more modernist opinion that Islam is antiquated and cannot address the challenges of today's global village. There are people who have access to foreign lands and they have seen how lack of religion helps a society grow and prosper. But that group of people is small. A much larger group of people is the one following this opinion blindly. Media is fueling this concept by adopting Indian and American cultures and presenting them as it is what we are. This is a dangerous trend creating an identity crisis. Marriage functions, social gatherings and entertainment is all pushing the society in this direction of confusion where we are starting to think of us as something like that of Americans. Consumerism is on the rise and appears to be the sole purpose of life. Young professionals working hard and smart are only focused on one thing. Ability to get a high-paying job to afford a nice car, frequent dinning out and brand name clothing and personal care accessories. "He who has the most toys wins" sums up the mindset of this group within middle, upper middle and the elite in our country.

The next group is the one which hates the first group. They also have confusion and division on what is the Ideology of their country. In the absence of the ideology, they bond together on a common hatred that of west. It shows up with different names capitalism, consumerism, secularism, westernism, Americanism, etc. but if you dig deeper there are the same 3-4 arguments about Jews, Riba, Oil and Nuclear Assets. There are groups who want to declare Jihad on this hated entity. Then their are groups that want to convert all the "
misguided" and then there are who want to establish Khilafat. None of them have been able to start with the ideology rather with nostalgia and hatred of this one confused evil entity which at times includes World Bank and IMF.

The 3rd group is of the downtrodden and beaten up masses of this country facing oppression, injustice, hunger and humiliation. This type of catastrophe used to turn people towards their only Hope, that of Allah. People tend to become more religious when faced with a predicament. However, this group has been beaten up so badly that they have even lost Hope. Some have accepted this to be their destiny and therefore they are not complaining. They know they are supposed to be beaten up like that. Fathers seeing their daughters gang raped in broad day light, mothers seeing their kids surviving on 1 meal every 2-3 days, youth toiling in the fields or on the streets to get enough labor for 1 piece of bread is being accepted as the purpose of living. The loss in faith in Islam or Allah is tied to loss in Hope. Hope has been taken away from these people. This actually has given rise to Pir-Faqir and Urs and Mannat at numerous tombs and mazaars across the country. The average count of people visiting these places has dramatically increased. Even though their situation doesn't change but at least they see that as making some effort.

So basically lack of Ideology and lack of Identity is pushing our society in three primary directions and then there are sub branches of these primary stems in all sorts of directions. We are heading farther and farther away from each other.

Next I will address the Geography

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Stages of Societal Growth

For a society to establish and grow it has to go through the following stages
  1. Ideology
  2. Geography
  3. Political System
  4. Justice System and
  5. Economic System

The Ideology brings the people together. It is the message that links people into a chain. Their emotions and intellect become affiliated and their faith and trust on their fellow human being is established. Once the ideology is accepted and adopted, the group then needs physical space where they can live together. Immigrants moving to a new land or country in droves is a classic example of Ideology and Geography being interlinked. Once the geography is secured, next come the power structure needed for governance of that geography and people. This is the political system required to formulate a power structure and creation of succession plans within the power corridors. Democracy, theocracy, monarchy are all forms of the political system.

It can be debated whether a system of justice comes before a system of politics. The argument is that if the politicians are corrupt, they will never let the system of justice prevail. In an existing society this is probably true but if we look at the evolution of society from the very begining, someone in power has to form the code of conduct. So rules of conduct with fellow citizens and with the state machinery are defined and an enforcement mechanism is built around it. Therefore political system and its commitment and endorsement of the justice system is necessary. This provides the basic platform for survival and now the economics can take over.

The reason for this background is to analyze Pakistan along these stages. These stages have to be followed in this exact same order for a society to prosper. In subsequent blogs, I will cover this one by one with respect to Pakistan as a society.

1 year after returning - Hope

It has been 1 full year when I moved the family and my home from USA to Pakistan. While my personal situation has been relatively event free, the country has really transformed in the last 1 year. I had not spelled out the political situation in Pakistan in my original post on returning to Pakistan but it is absolutely critical that I do it now. The opportunities and the future outlook for expats wanting to return has changed significantly since then.

I still see reasons strong enough to come back but the nature of those reasons has changed. When I started planning my move, it was a bright financial and professional outlook. A prosperous Pakistan waiting for the sons of its soil to come back, toil the earth of their motherland and reap rewards. Now the country asks for sacrifice. Sacrifice of comfortable and safe living in foreign lands as it has to be abandoned to save the country from imploding. Since most of the audience of this post is probably going to be science and engineering professionals, they may be wondering what can they do against bomb blasts, civil war, unaffordable cost of living, corrupt politicians and incompetent bureacracy. Well, all that their brethren, the fellow citizens of Pakistan need at this time is HOPE. If that one thing is left with the people, they will persevere, they will be able to survive the storm, they will rise again but unfortunately there is no one to give them hope. Even the thought of better days ahead has been taken away.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Returning to Pakistan - A Guide - Closing

Sense of Purpose
The people, the primary audience of this article, typically think about a sense of purpose when life starts to settle down for them in America. I have found that stage to arrive somewhere mid to late 30s. You are happily married with a loving wife and healthy kids, you make a decent living and you live in a nice suburb in a nice house with 4 bedrooms and a 2 car garage. Life sometimes seems to come to a stand still and you look around for what to do next. For people who have entered a stage in their life where they have started pondering these questions, is that it? Am I done achieving things? Is it going to be the same business as usual from this point on? There is a tremendous sense of purpose in Pakistan. From earning honest money to teaching your kids proper manners and from taking up a cause of healthcare or distribution of justice, you can come back to Pakistan and feel alive. There are problems all over the place and hardly anyone seems to mind. From the poor quality of service at restaurants and upscale stores to a blatant abuse of power and status by the rich and powerful, all areas can use some help. The system of life in Pakistan is not easy and a sole family or individual cannot fight it on his own either. A group mentality and of like minded approach to basic lifestyle coming from people who have moved from abroad need to join hands and get together in this fight. Rest assured, I am not recommending everyone to take up social work but do whatever you want to do for a living in Pakistan with a sense that you need to help these people by setting an example. Things as simple as saying thank you to a peon or guard in an office building is enough once a day to make a difference even for those who are not crusaders fighting for their beliefs. Honesty, integrity, courtesy and respect for a human being regardless of his social status are simple things which this society is losing very fast. The good things we have learnt from the North American continent have to be instilled in the local populace slowly and gradually. My daughter, in grade 3, writing an essay on “what would I do if I had a million rupees” ended up suggesting building better schools and museums in Karachi as she found these 2 things wanting compared with Chicago. We were called up by the teacher and the principal to understand how we have taught this to our daughter especially since we have just moved from USA. I firmly believe that simple examples of things done right will make the people around us realize and open their eyes to alternative approaches in life. The youth need this more than the adults as they are losing a sense of ambition. Their focus is on securing financial freedom so they can get nicer cars, look prettier and wear designer clothes. Youth from all classes of society are falling for this probably due to the onslaught of media and uncontrolled internet access. Hard work, patience and perseverance is losing its charm and it needs to be inculcated by demonstrating first hand how it is done. I believe the expatriate community in North America has a very important role to fill this widening gap between what is being done and what should be done.

My Story
I will close this with my personal story in a brief paragraph just so you can use the right grain of salt in reading my observations, thoughts, opinions and suggestions to get the right flavoring. I come from the lower middle class educated society of Pakistan and by a stroke of luck ended up in computer science at the right time. I graduated in December 1994 and immediately started in offshore software development work. That led to an eventual move to US in 1997. Over the next 10 years, I had a phenomenal run professionally and financially. All along, I was looking for the right opportunity to go back to Pakistan and after a couple of false starts found the right business group investing in the right business and willing to take me on. I have recently moved back to Pakistan after spending exactly 10 years in USA. I had no legal, professional or financial urgency to leave United States and my siblings are well settled in USA & Canada. My parents were all by themselves in Karachi and were in deteriorating health which was the primary driver for keep looking back. I am now running a startup as the number 2 guy and working 8-10 hours to get the start-up off the ground, implement some of my ideas that I could never convince my upper management in USA, build and train a team of committed professionals and working to help my wife convert a couple of ideas into prototypes for which I never got the time while in USA.

Returning to Pakistan - A Guide - Lifestyle

Life in Pakistan
This section will be more relevant to the home maker rather than the professional but I believe it is very important since it deals with the day-to-day satisfaction and acceptability of life in Pakistan for wife & kids.

Residence
If you have been living in the suburban United States, you are in for a surprise regardless of where the house is and how much it’s worth. The booming industry of housing in Pakistan is all speculative; there are no fundamental changes in this industry for the last 200 years. The way we build houses in early 19th century, same methods with minor adjustments are still around. There is no skills development in masonry, plumbing, wiring, carpeting, paint, etc. the entire team of contractors and their labor will build the entire house but they will only have a handful of specialized tools to accomplish all their tasks. The entire housing construction doesn’t use as many tools as you find in one aisle in Home Depot. What this does is that the house doesn’t have the level of finishing that we are used to and trying to fix the problems properly takes a lot of time, effort and education of the labor. In the absence of specialized tools the results are still short of satisfaction as there are limits to hand and eye based finishing besides if you are not closely monitoring the labor, the results tend to be disastrous. The neighborhoods is another problem particularly in Karachi with traffic jams, public transport, sewage overflows, power cut-offs within the locality causing unimaginable suffering and frustration. Basic utility aspects of suburban lifestyle in US are missing altogether compounded by the scarcity of water resource and lack of centrally heated/cooled houses. This causes too much dust to settle in and not enough water to keep things constantly cleaned

Servants
The housewives are typically used to taking care of the house themselves in USA. The biggest attraction for them is the availability of labor in Pakistan for cooking, cleaning, driving, grocery, laundry and ironing, etc. I hate to disappoint the hundreds of women I have come across in North America who are always in awe of the women in Pakistan who have hired help but it is true, it is not as rosy as it seems from the outside. First of all, in order to get the house to a level of order and cleanliness as we are used to in North America is very difficult to do just because the system of household was never designed to be run by the lady of the house. The performance of the servant is always going to be below par when compared with a dish washer for example. In order to push them to deliver at an acceptable level, you have to supervise extensively and show them how to do things. The level of personal hygiene is also very rarely acceptable but becomes very important if little kids are going to be in the house. Constant supervision and very close monitoring is absolutely essential when dealing with servants. This makes the perceived free time that looked so obvious from the outside almost impossible to achieve. Another issue mostly with the three main cities, is that of crimes committed by the servants or by their connivance

Handy-man
I purchased split ACs and the delivery and installation was included in the cost. When the labor arrived, they didn’t have the basic tools including a ladder. They said, you are supposed to provide that. This sums up the level of service you can expect. There is very little structure or method to what they do and how they accomplish their desired state. It is hit and trial all over the place with an incorrect fix to an incorrect diagnosis. The problem is that the one category of labor which is involved in this type of handy-man job is day labor and they have no formal training and of course they don’t have the resources or capacity to learn formally. It’s a matter of feeding their kids that night or not. I use them a lot for small tasks but I typically ending up doing things myself and count the payment into charity. The other category actually is a little better financially and typically works at a shop, store or with a contractor. They are better than the day labor but since the employer always squeezes them for time and money, they don’t have specialist tools or training either. No Seth big or small will ever invest in their employees to help them get better or make them more productive. It is really disappointing. Lack of finishing and fine tuning is the standard across the board. Running Around Since the society functions on the sweat of the labor class, anyone who can afford is usually hiring labor to take care of day to day tasks. Since the labor is going to do the running around, the retail market is not designed for the convenience of people like us. The destitute labor is supposed to put in any amount of effort in order to get things done and they do since they don’t have an alternative for their survival. What this does to people like us if we ever go out looking for something more than the bread and breakfast, it takes a laborious amount of effort to find the right shop with the right product. A Saturday off should be the number 1 requirement for anyone coming back to Pakistan. I wish there was a home depot here in Karachi. The products and sections found in home depot will typically take several days and an awful lot of effort to locate the equipment for a simple plumbing, electrical or wood work project across different parts of the city

Political Situation
The recent political situation because of assembly tenure getting completed and Musharraf Vs Bibi Vs Supreme Court complex web of deals and backroom negotiations, it seems that the country is on the cusp of crisis even leading to some kind of civil war. Rest assured it is not going to happen. There can be disturbance here or there but the turmoil that would impact the economy of a city or a region is now understood to be not in the interest of anyone. Besides, there cannot be any mass movement in Pakistan as there is no platform or ideology that can bring everyone on the streets. This will always create an environment of give and take between the major players in all regions, government and political parties. I continue to see a status quo resulting in stability as far as economy is concerned and that is what this article is primarily concerned with. The biggest contributor to this status quo is western interest in Pakistan’s stability and the empowered media and recently awakened Supreme Court. I have moved my family to Pakistan after careful examination of this situation so I am putting exactly as I see it.

Even though this paints a gloomy picture of an otherwise undetected problem area, people with good family structure and understanding of the people helping out in and around the house for decades, a lot of this goes away. You can revisit your scores in social and environmental factors after reading this section. Kids’ schooling is another very important topic for families looking to move back and my advice to them will be summed up in just one sentence. “Find the most expensive school and get your kids enrolled – that’s it”. The country clubs now mushrooming in almost all large cities of Pakistan are actually a good break-away from the daily hassles of life. This is even more important since avenues of family entertainment are extremely limited in Pakistan. These clubs, however, require a one-time life long membership fees that start at 10,000 USD and can go as high as 40,000 USD. If your father has such a membership, you may have easier time getting a membership for your family for a fraction of this cost.

Returning to Pakistan - A Guide - Opportunities

Opportunities
As far as the social and environmental factors are concerned based on the above guidelines, that is a personal matter of choice for each individual and I am not going to provide any further insight into those factors. Instead, I am going to focus on ironing out the financial and professional factors in subsequent sections

Professionals
Professionals are broadly divided into 2 categories, management and skilled (IT, engineering medicine, accounting, etc.) not that management is not skilled, this is an arbitrary division for simplicity’s sake. In order to secure a high profile job with good growth opportunity and good earning potential, the professionals need to have a graduate degree from a top school. If the assumption is to get a well paid job, you are almost certain to need a management position. If you don’t want a management career track, as a professional, you stand little chance of landing a job that you would like. The acceptance of foreign trained executives in the financial, telecommunications and IT sector has improved dramatically. There is also recognition of the value that foreign trained executives bring to the overall management culture. If you are a skilled professional, you still have a chance provided you are coming from a blue chip company in USA and are willing to enter the management ranks. In such cases, executive management position may be a little difficult to come by but senior management positions will be plentiful. Management professionals, the ones with MBAs from top schools are slotted for executive management ranks while the rest can easily land a senior management position.

Type of Employer
The type of employer is perhaps the most important aspect of defining good employment here in Pakistan. Following are some examples
1. Top of the list are MNCs (multi-national corporations) including foreign banks. It is not easy to land a senior position in these companies because of well defined local and regional management and HR practices. A lot of executives from Middle-East and Far-East are typically ready to slide into a top spot as they are at the regional head quarters

2. Next in line are joint venture and start-up initiatives lead by the enterprising business groups of Pakistan in partnership with a foreign corporation. These business groups, even though are family owned, have learnt to recede management control and handing it to trained professionals. Leading this charge are actually groups coming from the brokerage industry. Groups like AKD, Arif Habib, JS and KASB have covered tremendous mileage in becoming true capitalists. There is a lot of opportunity in this category as joint ventures are being launched in numerous areas including
a. Hotels & Resorts including recreational parks
b. Real-Estate development, both residential & commercial
c. Financial (banking, insurance, mutual funds, equity investment, brokerage)
d. Telecommunication
e. Retail
f. Consumer Packaged Goods
g. Dairy and Agriculture farming

3. NGOs, Privatization and Government Reform initiatives are well paid and high profile jobs but may not have the longevity of a career. They are typically short-lived initiatives funded by donor agencies or large institutions in some shape or form. Getting into these at a senior position typically requires either strong connections or strong profile. The government reform initiatives are right now under way in institutions like State bank, CBR, and some other low flying departments like bureau of statistics, census, etc. The privatization activity (in some cases the organizations are stepping up with corporate culture to fight getting sold off) has opened up the door to new-corporatism at KESC, Sui Southern & Northern, Pakistan Steel, PSO, etc. if you visit their websites, you will find a lot of information about the Boards, Management as well as open positions. These organizations are redefining themselves and provide excellent opportunities for professionals willing to build something instead of becoming a part of something already functioning efficiently

4. The last category is of the employers involved in some kind of outsourcing work, they typically only require IT staff in senior and junior positions. Professionals having the ability to travel bank n forth between USA and Pakistan can also play roles like sales, project management and business analyst but it is difficult to join these outfits in an executive capacity as their operations are fairly small and executive spots are taken up by founders or the initial start-up team

Outside of these 4 categories, you better have a very good reason to enter a company where all executive positions are held by Seth Sahib and his brother, son, nephew, etc. They tend to have very poor vision, extremely short-termed, no recognition for employees and an overall mistrust with the employees in their dealings. The name of the game is maintaining two sets of books to avoid paying taxes, conducting all business on rough paper or no paper at all leaving them with very poor visibility of product, customer, distribution, opportunities, expansion and overall survival against the onslaught of corporations entering some select industries. Very soon, no existing industry and no Seth sahib will be protected from some enterprising investor willing to bring a foreign corporation and taking the business away from Seth Sahib. They have no appreciation for quality human resource coming from abroad and they will never entertain sharing equity with an employee

Entrepreneurs
The real land of opportunity is now Pakistan ironically for people willing to return to Pakistan with an entrepreneurial spirit from US, which was supposed to be the land of opportunity. This is not only true for Pakistan but for the entire market segment now known as emerging markets or SAGE for the south Asian region specifically. The returns on investment are phenomenal and in quick turn-around as well. The mature markets of the developed world have a scarcity of untapped opportunities but in SAGE markets, proven ideas from the developed world need implementation. The opportunity in Pakistan, therefore, does not involve lengthy R&D cycles for product development, costly production and supply chain hiccups or surprises of a new customer segment. All an entrepreneur needs to do is look at the basic functioning of the society and areas of opportunity for simplicity, convenience, cost saving and better value within the existing market and then tailor an idea from the west

Type of Business
The opportunities are abound in every sector for entrepreneurs. It turns out that the product and customer are the least understood or cared for concepts in the business in Pakistan. This leaves tremendous untapped opportunities for profitable business by fine-tuning the product offering or improving the service. Banking and telecom are the only sectors that have started to directly interact with the customer. In the branch based deposit banking, the relationship was not with a bank but with a branch. Now with consumer credit launch (abundance of credit cards, auto loans, etc.), finally, banks are beginning to interact with the customer as a centralized entity. However, CPG (consumer packaged goods or FMCG in Pakistani terms), healthcare, insurance, transportation are all in their very primitive state. The service sector also has tremendous opportunity for product and service innovation. My summary assessment of the business culture in Pakistan is that it is not capitalist at all. Ownership of physical assets is the prime concern of the business like that of hotel, commercial plazas, shops, factories, etc. Once they own the actual infrastructure that houses the business, they focus on the day-day running operation and as long as that remains cash-flow positive and provides enough for a decent living, they will not look to further innovate, improve or enhance their business potential. Grand daddy had a medical or garments store, father ran it and now the son is running it. Online businesses, the successful ones in North America, can all be launched here with a local flavoring and if executed appropriately can be very rewarding. Those of us, who missed the dot com boat in USA, have another shot in the areas of media, advertising, marketing, sales, retail, automotive and other small business facilitation type services. The one thing needs to be clearly understood is that any business proposition that has “cutting HR cost” as one of its primary selling proposition, will not work in Pakistan. At least for another 10-15 years, people don’t realize the lack of skilled labor, they just see make-do labor and that is enough.

Operational Hazards
Investment in Pakistan and actually owning and operating a business has its challenges. The worst of these challenges relate to the corruption and bhatta mafia that charges money for legitimate tasks and blackmails on frivolous accounts to continue to extort money out of honest businessmen. In addition to this corruption, the lack of service from other interacting departments from power and water to suppliers and landlords on office space, all score high on cost and low on delivery. The best way to launch a business in Pakistan and yet avoid these hazards prevalent in our society is to join a major business group. This is the same group that I was referring to in the previous employment section under category 2. These enterprising business groups are always looking for good ideas and people with ideas and some experience to run a business coming from USA are always valued higher. These groups are also open to giving complete management control to experienced professionals who are willing to invest some of their own money in the venture as well. This approach helps utilize the brand name of these groups to stave off the unwanted elements in the society looking to extort money out of you. This also simplifies access to quality employees, middle managers, vendors and suppliers who are conscious of their image within the group and therefore act as professionally as possible. Government licenses, permits and other external agency NOCs, certificates, passes and clearances also become easier as someone within the group of companies knows somebody. These groups respect professionalism, KPI based management and efficient execution with extra emphasis on running a business with honesty and integrity. You may be able to work out an equity sharing deal with them.

Human Resource
For setting up the business, a good team is essential. Unfortunately, this will be the biggest challenge for entrepreneurs to find good reliable people for a decent market price. The cream of the crop is too expensive, has too much attitude and has a high turn over. The best bet is to find people who are ambitious, appreciate professional management and value what they will be learning in a start-up. It is advisable to get some ground work done in this area related to policies and procedures as I find the HR policies archaic however they are a requirement in this culture and society. Managers will have to truly demonstrate leadership and mentoring abilities in order to build and retain a good team. Employee retention through respect, learning opportunity and perks is a cheaper to do but require support and help from locally trained managers especially ones in HR and office administration. Using office staff as personal servants is very common even in large blue chip banks and therefore managers tend to do the same things when they work for you.